Ongoing Research Project
Navigating Towards Net-Zero Shipping: An Integrated Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for Maritime Alternative Fuels in Taiwan
邁向淨零航運：建構臺灣海運替代燃料之全生命週期環境衝擊與技術經濟整合評估模型
- Duration
- 2026–2028
- Funder
- National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) (國科會)
A two-year NSTC project building a Taiwan-specific decision-support framework for maritime alternative fuels — hydrogen, ammonia, and green methanol — that integrates Well-to-Wake Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA), and Monte Carlo uncertainty simulation to compare imported versus domestically produced fuel supply chains at the Port of Taichung.
About this project
Global shipping carries around 80% of world trade yet still runs on heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil, making it a major source of greenhouse-gas emissions. Under the IMO's 2023 strategy — at least 20% cuts by 2030, 70% by 2040, and net zero around 2050 — together with the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime, alternative marine fuels have moved from option to obligation. For Taiwan, an export-driven, energy-import-dependent economy whose three carriers hold ~10% of global container capacity, this transition directly shapes supply-chain competitiveness and energy security.
Yet most existing assessments rely on foreign assumptions and default databases that do not reflect Taiwan's power mix, port infrastructure, or supply-chain constraints — and they rarely compare overseas import against domestic production under a consistent system boundary. This project fills that gap by building a localised, reproducible decision-support framework centred on the Port of Taichung.
Focusing on hydrogen, ammonia, and green methanol, the study develops a Taiwan-representative Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and evaluates each fuel on a Well-to-Wake basis (per kWh of effective engine output), combining Life Cycle Assessment (IPCC 2021 GWP100/20 and ReCiPe 2016 midpoint indicators) with Techno-Economic Analysis (levelised cost of energy, life-cycle cost, and carbon-inclusive costs under EU ETS / CBAM-style carbon prices). A Monte Carlo uncertainty module then propagates key technical and market uncertainties to produce results with confidence intervals and identify the conditions under which fuel rankings flip.
Delivered over two years (2026–2028), the project will output quantified fuel-transition strategies, import–domestic supply-chain configurations, and an open, extensible parameter library — providing scientific support for Taiwan's net-zero maritime policy, port energy planning, and industrial investment decisions.
海運承擔全球約 80% 的貿易量，卻長期倚賴重油（HFO）與船用柴油（MGO），成為 溫室氣體排放的重要來源。在國際海事組織（IMO）2023 年減碳策略——2030 年至少減 20%、2040 年至少 70%，並於 2050 年前後達成淨零——以及歐盟 ETS 與 FuelEU Maritime 陸續上路下，替代燃料已從「選項」走向「義務」。對出口導向、能源高度仰賴 進口，且三大航商運能約占全球貨櫃市場 10% 的臺灣而言，這場轉型直接牽動供應鏈 競爭力與能源安全。
然而現有評估多沿用國外假設與預設資料庫，難以反映臺灣的電力結構、港口基礎設施 與供應鏈限制，也鮮少在一致的系統邊界下比較海外進口與在地生產兩種供應 策略。本計畫以臺中港為核心場域，建立在地化且可重現的決策支援框架，回應 此一缺口。
研究聚焦氫、氨與綠色甲醇，建置具臺灣代表性的生命週期清單（LCI），以油井 到艉流（WTW）、每 kWh 引擎有效輸出能量為功能單位，結合生命週期評估（IPCC 2021 GWP100/20 與 ReCiPe 2016 中點指標）與技術經濟分析（均化能源成本、全生命 週期成本，以及 ETS／CBAM 情境下的含碳成本）。並透過蒙地卡羅不確定性模組傳遞 關鍵技術與市場不確定性，輸出具信賴區間的結果，辨識燃料排序翻轉的條件。
計畫為期兩年（2026–2028），將提出具量化依據的燃料轉型策略、進口與在地供應鏈 配置建議，以及一套開放且可延伸的參數庫，作為臺灣淨零航運政策、港口能源佈局與 產業投資決策的科學基礎。